Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves

Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) MPI Grand-Ensemble an explainable neural-network method. We find that tripolar pattern positive in Subtropical Gyre is precursor EuSHWs. In addition, west Iberian Peninsula, Sea, Baltic Sea Mediterranean relate distinct soil moisture anomaly patterns are precursors western southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While phase indicates whether EuSHW might emerge, regional indicate spatial characteristics